{{Subject}}
Real Chemistry’s weekly analysis of biopharmaceutical pricing and value news, provided free of charge.
Real Chemistry
Value Report
January 30, 2026
Trump’s Domestic Policy Bleeds into Global Health Arena

As year two of President Trump’s second term begins, the administration’s domestic policies are beginning to creep into the global health landscape in unprecedented ways as the U.S. moves further from multilateralism and foreign aid.

This week, the U.S. Government asked Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, to phase out vaccines containing the preservative thimerosal as a condition of any future funding, including $300 million that has already been appropriated by Congress. The request promotes unfounded claims connecting thimerosal to autism and other neurodevelopmental disorders by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and other anti-vaccine groups.

On Jan. 27, the Trump administration announced the most significant expansion of the Mexico City Policy (MCP) to date. MCP has historically required, as a condition of U.S. government funding, that foreign organizations certify that they would not “perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning” using funds from any source (including non-U.S. funds).” In this revision, MCP will now apply to most recipients of foreign aid (not just foreign NGOs), encompassing significantly more funding – nearly $40 billion – and including a longer list of prohibited services and activities, including DEI and promoting or providing gender-affirming care.

The strongest sign of the Trump administration’s “America First” approach to global health came as the United States’ formally withdrew from the World Health Organization last week. However, states including California are stepping in to fill the void, mirroring the domestic response to fractured federal public health guidance.

Rachel Bridges, Senior Director

‘Minimal’ Impacts Possible for IRA Round Three

On Tuesday evening, Medicare administrators ‌published a list of 16⁠ branded ‌drugs ‌for the third cycle of the Medicare Drug Price ⁠Negotiation Program, including products reimbursed under ‍Medicare ⁠Part B for the first time. Drugmakers have until the end of February to confirm participation in the program, which would determine maximum fair prices effective in early 2028.

While the previous round of negotiated drugs heavily favored diabetes medicines, treatments for inflammatory conditions and cancer dominate this year’s list. Two drugs that did not make the list – Merck’s Keytruda and Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo – were notably exempt from selection in this cycle due to the expanded orphan drug exemption enacted as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

In addition to 15 medicines selected for the first time, CMS announced that one previously negotiated drug – Boehringer Ingelheim’s Tradjenta – will be renegotiated.

In a statement, PhRMA highlighted how “seniors have faced higher costs, fewer choices and more barriers to care” since the passage of Medicare negotiation through the Inflation Reduction Act. Analysts have also weighed in, saying that industry impacts should be “manageable” given upcoming losses of exclusivity and the results of past cycles.

Andrew Wishon, Senior Manager

The Latest on HHS Funding and a Potential Government Shutdown

A deal between Trump and Senate Democrats on Thursday put HHS funding back on track to passage and reduced the risk of a prolonged government shutdown.

The agreement allows the Senate to move forward with funding HHS through the end of September – legislation that was previously stalled due to immigration enforcement issues, not health care-related factors. The close call raised concerns about a potential continuing resolution for HHS that would not include key policies tied to the original bill, such as telehealth extensions.

Under this bill, HHS would receive funding for the remainder of FY26, while DHS operates on a two-week stopgap as Congress hashes out immigration details. There is still a chance of a technical shutdown early Saturday because the U.S. House is currently in recess, but this would most likely last only through the weekend.

Even in that scenario, the impact on health and pharma operations would be minimal. Medicare and Medicaid payments would continue while essential FDA, CDC, NIH and CMS functions would remain operational. Once passed, the HHS funding package will enact key telehealth extensions and other provisions that preserve stability for providers, patients and the industry at large.

Stephen Tellone and Emily Cohen, CPPA

Circled on Our Calendar
  • No events of note next week
Quotes of the Week
  • “My employer quietly changed nearly all of our hospital’s insurance offerings to high-deductible health plans, and I found myself asking my own physician to switch my medication to a drug that is less effective and less safe – but cheaper. I now feared the same bills that kept my patients away.” – Dr. Amy Caggiula, STAT
  • “Patient self-pay is no longer a workaround for coverage gaps…It is a core access channel shaped by consumer behavior and structural constraints in the health care system.”  – Laura Jensen, Drug Channels
  • “Republican margins in Congress are extremely slim and getting members to coalesce behind one blueprint will be like herding cats. But there is hope given conservatives were able to eke out a tax cut win last summer under similar conditions. To borrow a line from ‘Dumb and Dumber,’ ‘so you’re telling me there’s a chance.’ – Dr. Tom Price, The Hill
Other News
See you next week …
–  The Real Chemistry Corporate Pricing & Public Affairs Team
Know a friend or colleague that would enjoy the Value Report?
Invite them to sign up here.
© Real Chemistry, All Rights Reserved.